The future of the automobile was the main topic of the 2009 International Automotive Press Briefing hosted by Bosch, the leading global automotive supplier, in Boxberg (Germany) in mid-June 2009. Which engine will be powering the cars of the future? This issue is a hot topic for society. The public discussion is being driven by a diversity of interests: those of drivers, of automakers and their suppliers, as well as by politicians, associations, environmental organizations, and countless other groups. But the multitude of opinions and an insufficient understanding of technology seem to have led to unrealistic forecasts. While the electric car will some day become reality, the dominance of the internal-combustion engine will remain unchallenged over the next twenty years. This is because important technological challenges on the road to powertrain electrification must first be overcome.
Electromobility will usher in completely new approaches with new business models, cars that are free of direct emissions, and significantly improved fuel efficiency. “At Bosch, we are investing heavily in making these visions a reality,” said Dr. Bernd Bohr, chairman of the Bosch Automotive Group, at the start of the event. Bosch is working hard to get the electric drive of the future readied for large-scale series production and as a systems supplier, Bosch believes it is well-prepared for the electric car. The company is working on powertrain electrification in an independent business unit that employs 400 engineers. By the end of this year, that number is set to rise to over 500. The SB LiMotive joint venture with Samsung SDI has also contributed to increasing the company's innovative strength. The cooperation aims to develop the heart of the electric drive of the future: the lithium-ion battery. The new battery technology is set to be ready for series production in 2011.
“The electric car will come, but in small numbers at first. It will occupy a niche and will not make a noticeable mark on the roads until after 2020,” said Bohr. By 2015 Bosch expects to see a sales volume of some 500,000 electric vehicles worldwide. To achieve higher volumes, the performance of these vehicles must first improve considerably. Above all, this means greater energy density for the battery. To cover a minimum distance of 200 kilometers, an electric vehicle would currently require a lithium-ion battery weighing some 250 kilograms at a cost of around 17,000 euros. Developers must thus work to reduce the battery's weight and price. It is the goal of major suppliers to make the battery affordable for the average consumer. To bring the electric car to market quickly, costs must be reduced by a half to two-thirds. And this is why Bohr calls on manufacturers in Europe and the U.S. to avoid fragmenting their resources and to work as partners in bringing new technologies about, also for the electric car. To this end, manufacturers are aligning the entire vehicle design with the new drive system. At the same time, suppliers are developing new technologies like the lithium-ion battery for the car, and will provide large volumes of these innovations to automakers at a reasonable cost.
However, regardless of how much Bosch is doing to develop alternative drive concepts, the internal-combustion engine will remain the dominant technology over the next 20 years. Further developing gasoline and diesel engines is the fastest way to effectively reduce fuel consumption and CO2 emissions, in line with ever stricter policies around the world to conserve resources and combat climate change. According to Bohr, “this will turn a mid-class diesel into an 80 mpg car – with carbon dioxide emissions under 99 grams per kilometer.”
